Number 30

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

17times drawn · chance expected 13 +1.13σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

4.9average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

22longest completed wait · 39% chance of one at least that long

30 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 17 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, +1.13σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 30, draw by draw

Drawn 17 times in 86 draws · average wait 4.9 draws · longest completed wait 22 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.1
3rd smallest1 · chance 1.2
4th smallest3 · chance 4.5
5th smallest8 · chance 7.2
6th smallest5 · chance 4.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

24 7 20 38 5 13

Never drawn alongside 5 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 4 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-18	2	3rd	7 24 30 31 34 38
2016-07-16	2	4th	6 10 11 30 37 39
2016-07-14	1	4th	5 20 21 30 32 38

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.