Number 4

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.53σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

5.8average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

20longest completed wait · 45% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, +0.53σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 86 draws · average wait 5.8 draws · longest completed wait 20 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest8 · chance 9.7
2nd smallest7 · chance 4.7
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.6
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

27 3 6 7 11 14

Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 5 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-19	8	1st	4 11 14 20 28 39
2016-07-11	12	2nd	3 4 5 10 16 38
2016-06-29	7	1st	4 9 32 33 37 38

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.