In Ontario 49 under the 6/49 + 1/46 · Sep 2024 – Nov 2025 rules — 120 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).
17times drawn · chance expected 15 +0.64σ
4draws waiting · a wait this long: 68% for any number
6.8average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
19longest completed wait · 80% chance of one at least that long
38 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 17 times in 120 draws against 14.7 expected, +0.64σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
38
Number 38, draw by draw
Drawn 17 times in 120 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 19 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 8 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 8 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.