Number 15

In Ontario 49 under the 6/49 + 1/46 · Sep 2024 – Nov 2025 rules — 120 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).

14times drawn · chance expected 15 −0.19σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 77% for any number

6.4average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

34longest completed wait · 16% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 14 times in 120 draws against 14.7 expected, −0.19σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 14 times in 120 draws · average wait 6.4 draws · longest completed wait 34 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 2.3
2nd smallest6 · chance 5.3
3rd smallest5 · chance 4.5
4th smallest2 · chance 1.7
5th smallest1 · chance 0.3
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 4 3 7 30 44

Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2025-11-08	2	3rd	1 9 15 31 43 44
2025-11-01	4	2nd	3 15 17 27 34 38
2025-10-18	34	3rd	4 13 15 21 41 47

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.