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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Ontario 49 under the 6/49 + 1/46 · Sep 2024 – Nov 2025 rules — 120 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).
Drawn 13 times in 120 draws against 14.7 expected, −0.47σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 13 times in 120 draws · average wait 9.7 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 45 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 45 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 45 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | 7 | 6th | 42025293545 |
| 2025-10-22 | 17 | 5th | 11440424548 |
| 2025-08-23 | 12 | 6th | 202331353745 |
| 2025-07-12 | 5 | 5th | 92528314549 |
| 2025-06-25 | 2 | 6th | 212427323845 |
| 2025-06-18 | 4 | 6th | 131626323445 |
| 2025-06-04 | 10 | 5th | 11623444547 |
| 2025-04-30 | 2 | 6th | 61419272845 |
| 2025-04-23 | 15 | 6th | 112123253345 |
| 2025-03-01 | 18 | 6th | 5923272945 |
| 2024-12-28 | 4 | 6th | 32326353645 |
| 2024-12-14 | 20 | 6th | 6712133245 |
| 2024-10-05 | — | 4th | 42122454748 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 45 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.