Number 40

In Ontario 49 under the 6/49 + 1/46 · Sep 2024 – Nov 2025 rules — 120 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).

8times drawn · chance expected 15 −1.86σ

8draws waiting · a wait this long: 40% for any number

13.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

30longest completed wait · 15% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 8 times in 120 draws against 14.7 expected, −1.86σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 8 times in 120 draws · average wait 13.0 draws · longest completed wait 30 · waiting 8 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.3
4th smallest3 · chance 1.5
5th smallest3 · chance 3.5
6th smallest1 · chance 2.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

48 14 41 3 11 16

Never drawn alongside 21 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 21 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2025-10-22	2	3rd	1 14 40 42 45 48
2025-10-15	7	4th	5 11 16 40 41 48
2025-09-20	11	4th	3 16 21 40 42 48

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.