Number 21

In Ontario 49 under the 6/49 + 1/46 · Sep 2024 – Nov 2025 rules — 120 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 15 +0.09σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 68% for any number

8.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

32longest completed wait · 22% chance of one at least that long

21 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 120 draws against 14.7 expected, +0.09σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 21, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 120 draws · average wait 8.1 draws · longest completed wait 32 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 0.9
2nd smallest4 · chance 3.6
3rd smallest6 · chance 5.5
4th smallest3 · chance 3.8
5th smallest1 · chance 1.2
6th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

4 23 32 38 45 47

Never drawn alongside 8 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 10 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 21 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2025-11-05	5	2nd	6 21 22 31 34 38
2025-10-18	8	4th	4 13 15 21 41 47
2025-09-20	3	3rd	3 16 21 40 42 48

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.