Number 15

In Montana Cash under the 5/45 · since May 2014 rules — 1,296 draws, 5 from 1–45.

152times drawn · chance expected 144 +0.71σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 62% for any number

8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0

40longest completed wait · 78% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 152 times in 1,296 draws against 144.0 expected, +0.71σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 152 times in 1,296 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 40 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest28 · chance 30.7
2nd smallest70 · chance 63.6
3rd smallest41 · chance 44.3
4th smallest12 · chance 12.2
5th smallest1 · chance 1.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 13.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

39 24 20 8 27 34

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-09-23	4	2nd	3 15 21 27 40
2026-09-09	5	2nd	7 15 35 36 38
2026-08-22	16	2nd	7 15 16 29 38
2026-06-27	7	4th	5 9 10

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-09-04	15	2nd	1 15 20 39 40
2024-07-13	18	2nd	2 15 17 33 43
2024-05-11	14	3rd	8 12 15 43 44
2024-03-23	1	1st	15 24 27 35 43
2024-03-20	2	2nd	1 15 18 29 40
2024-03-13	1	3rd	7 13 15 22 32
2024-03-09	15	3rd	1 9 15 19 23
2024-01-17	1	3rd	4 9 15 20 39
2024-01-13	4	3rd	5 8 15 35 36
2023-12-30	7	2nd	5 15 19 40 42
2023-12-06	15	1st	15 21 34 42 43
2023-10-14	4	3rd	2 7 15 16 24
2023-09-30	1	2nd	5 15 17 24 38
2023-09-27	13	2nd	11 15 26 31 32
2023-08-12	13	2nd	6 15 22 25 39
2023-06-28	30	2nd	10 15 16 30 33
2023-03-15	3	3rd	11 13 15 23 24
2023-03-04	2	2nd	8 15 27 34 35
2023-02-25	10	2nd	8 15 17 29 43
2023-01-21	34	1st	15 24 27 28 36
2022-09-24	5	3rd	13 14 15 31 38
2022-09-07	16	2nd	8 15 23 29 45
2022-07-13	25	2nd	11 15 34 35 41
2022-04-16	3	3rd	4 13 15 42 44
2022-04-06	7	2nd	6 15 24 37 39
2022-03-12	1	1st	15 18 20 27 34
2022-03-09	3	4th	5 6 12 15 40
2022-02-26	3	2nd	9 15 16 17 20
2022-02-16	16	3rd	4 12 15 21 29
2021-12-22	13	3rd	1 8 15 29 33
2021-11-06	2	1st	15 24 31 34 45
2021-10-30	1	2nd	3 15 21 30 44
2021-10-27	5	1st	15 18 31 41 44
2021-10-09	3	2nd	13 15 19 31 32
2021-09-29	1	1st	15 21 35 38 40
2021-09-25	13	3rd	2 3 15 23 24
2021-08-11	1	3rd	11 14 15 36 38
2021-08-07	9	3rd	7 8 15 21 28
2021-07-07	19	2nd	5 15 25 30 39
2021-05-01	5	2nd	13 15 24 29 39
2021-04-14	8	2nd	12 15 25 33 43
2021-03-17	5	3rd	5 6 15 19 20
2021-02-27	6	1st	15 31 34 36 38
2021-02-06	8	1st	15 21 27 32 39
2021-01-09	9	2nd	2 15 32 39 44
2020-12-09	1	1st	15 18 22 24 39
2020-12-05	5	4th	8 10 12 15 31
2020-11-18	28	2nd	1 15 31 34 45
2020-08-12	9	1st	15 19 25 28 39
2020-07-11	10	3rd	11 13 15 26 27
2020-06-06	2	4th	5 9 11 15 37
2020-05-30	25	3rd	7 12 15 17 21
2020-03-04	2	2nd	13 15 20 33 37
2020-02-26	4	2nd	9 15 26 40 44
2020-02-12	11	2nd	5 15 19 36 40
2020-01-04	5	4th	2 9 13 15 23
2019-12-18	2	2nd	7 15 19 31 41
2019-12-11	15	2nd	9 15 28 36 39
2019-10-19	19	2nd	11 15 39 40 44
2019-08-14	4	2nd	4 15 27 34 44
2019-07-31	1	3rd	1 4 15 23 38
2019-07-27	17	3rd	5 7 15 39 41
2019-05-29	7	2nd	13 15 19 22 43
2019-05-04	4	2nd	5 15 20 40 42
2019-04-20	2	3rd	1 3 15 22 41
2019-04-13	6	2nd	7 15 18 35 45
2019-03-23	2	4th	3 5 8 15 26
2019-03-16	23	2nd	6 15 31 39 43
2018-12-26	2	3rd	3 12 15 17 40
2018-12-19	7	2nd	6 15 16 33 38
2018-11-24	7	2nd	14 15 25 27 45
2018-10-31	1	2nd	3 15 17 25 29
2018-10-27	14	3rd	12 14 15 25 28
2018-09-08	10	2nd	14 15 23 28 35
2018-08-04	4	1st	15 16 29 41 44
2018-07-21	3	5th	3 7 8 11 15
2018-07-11	12	1st	15 16 24 33 34
2018-05-30	3	4th	3 5 9 15 45
2018-05-19	1	2nd	14 15 24 29 44
2018-05-16	7	2nd	13 15 18 21 26
2018-04-21	5	1st	15 23 28 36 39
2018-04-04	15	2nd	7 15 34 37 40
2018-02-10	3	3rd	3 12 15 20 33
2018-01-31	1	2nd	8 15 23 28 29
2018-01-27	5	3rd	11 12 15 35 40
2018-01-10	16	1st	15 17 21 30 32
2017-11-15	13	2nd	4 15 17 22 34
2017-09-30	34	3rd	12 13 15 16 25
2017-06-03	12	2nd	3 15 20 36 38
2017-04-22	17	2nd	10 15 29 36 37
2017-02-22	6	1st	15 34 37 40 42
2017-02-01	1	1st	15 25 31 34 38
2017-01-28	4	1st	15 20 28 44 45
2017-01-14	4	2nd	13 15 16 20 42
2016-12-31	2	1st	15 20 26 30 41
2016-12-24	17	2nd	6 15 20 24 44
2016-10-26	2	2nd	3 15 28 38 40
2016-10-19	4	2nd	12 15 32 43 45
2016-10-05	12	3rd	6 10 15 39 43
2016-08-24	4	2nd	10 15 20 27 42
2016-08-10	2	2nd	13 15 17 22 27
2016-08-03	3	1st	15 17 29 33 37
2016-07-23	2	1st	15 21 33 35 43
2016-07-16	3	3rd	1 9 15 29 43
2016-07-06	7	2nd	8 15 18 38 39
2016-06-11	14	3rd	6 8 15 18 41
2016-04-23	2	2nd	6 15 19 20 45
2016-04-16	5	3rd	10 14 15 35 36
2016-03-30	11	2nd	9 15 35 37 41
2016-02-20	3	1st	15 16 27 33 38
2016-02-10	8	3rd	7 14 15 28 43
2016-01-13	8	1st	15 17 20 40 45
2015-12-16	40	3rd	6 7 15 19 27
2015-07-29	7	2nd	8 15 20 27 35
2015-07-04	9	2nd	14 15 16 20 29
2015-06-03	1	3rd	5 11 15 37 45
2015-05-30	5	1st	15 25 26 27 32
2015-05-13	11	1st	15 24 27 33 34
2015-04-04	4	4th	6 8 12 15 43
2015-03-21	3	2nd	4 15 32 34 42
2015-03-11	25	4th	8 9 13 15 16
2014-12-13	3	1st	15 19 24 25 41
2014-12-03	17	3rd	1 10 15 22 41
2014-10-04	3	1st	15 31 32 35 45
2014-09-24	8	3rd	9 10 15 18 28
2014-08-27	23	2nd	9 15 22 29 39
2014-06-07	1	2nd	9 15 25 26 30
2014-06-04	—	2nd	14 15 24 27 34