Wednesday, 29 September 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 35, 40) with the draw of 27 January 2018 — its closest relative in 770 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 September 2021): 15 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 149 — the 88th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 34 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.