Number 10

In Montana Cash under the 5/45 · since May 2014 rules — 1,296 draws, 5 from 1–45.

146times drawn · chance expected 144 +0.18σ

8draws waiting · a wait this long: 44% for any number

8.8average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0

38longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 146 times in 1,296 draws against 144.0 expected, +0.18σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 146 times in 1,296 draws · average wait 8.8 draws · longest completed wait 38 · waiting 8 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest44 · chance 56.3
2nd smallest73 · chance 63.4
3rd smallest26 · chance 23.0
4th smallest2 · chance 3.2
5th smallest1 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 13.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 20 27 38 8 17

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-09-12	13	2nd	8 10 22 30 38
2026-07-29	2	2nd	8 10 12 20 33
2026-07-22	7	3rd	6 7 10 37 41
2026-06-27	10	3rd	5 9 10

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-12-18	17	3rd	4 6 10 11 16
2024-10-19	16	1st	10 21 25 27 36
2024-08-24	1	2nd	9 10 18 36 39
2024-08-21	3	3rd	3 7 10 28 45
2024-08-10	1	2nd	9 10 19 33 39
2024-08-07	4	2nd	4 10 18 24 26
2024-07-24	12	2nd	2 10 17 27 38
2024-06-12	13	2nd	8 10 23 31 33
2024-04-27	1	2nd	1 10 22 33 36
2024-04-24	38	2nd	2 10 27 32 39
2023-12-13	15	3rd	1 8 10 25 43
2023-10-21	4	1st	10 11 13 18 27
2023-10-07	9	2nd	9 10 27 35 38
2023-09-06	11	1st	10 24 29 34 41
2023-07-29	9	2nd	3 10 18 22 38
2023-06-28	3	1st	10 15 16 30 33
2023-06-17	1	2nd	5 10 12 27 35
2023-06-14	2	2nd	3 10 20 29 43
2023-06-07	7	2nd	9 10 14 32 34
2023-05-13	5	2nd	2 10 36 37 44
2023-04-26	13	2nd	9 10 12 14 16
2023-03-11	1	3rd	2 6 10 16 45
2023-03-08	11	1st	10 19 22 26 29
2023-01-28	7	2nd	3 10 21 28 38
2023-01-04	11	1st	10 17 19 20 30
2022-11-26	1	3rd	4 5 10 14 33
2022-11-23	7	1st	10 26 32 38 41
2022-10-29	22	1st	10 11 13 23 25
2022-08-13	6	1st	10 17 18 31 38
2022-07-23	1	1st	10 16 25 29 33
2022-07-20	17	2nd	6 10 27 42 43
2022-05-21	16	1st	10 20 27 28 36
2022-03-26	6	1st	10 17 18 29 42
2022-03-05	6	2nd	8 10 18 19 24
2022-02-12	23	2nd	6 10 18 27 39
2021-11-24	9	1st	10 19 21 32 42
2021-10-23	3	2nd	2 10 16 21 35
2021-10-13	7	2nd	8 10 11 16 41
2021-09-18	5	1st	10 19 20 25 28
2021-09-01	5	2nd	3 10 17 39 41
2021-08-14	4	2nd	3 10 25 31 38
2021-07-31	2	2nd	9 10 30 39 41
2021-07-24	9	3rd	2 8 10 20 22
2021-06-23	24	1st	10 17 19 20 38
2021-03-31	3	2nd	1 10 29 34 45
2021-03-20	8	3rd	1 6 10 12 25
2021-02-20	17	2nd	8 10 13 19 45
2020-12-23	5	2nd	2 10 11 24 26
2020-12-05	12	2nd	8 10 12 15 31
2020-10-24	9	2nd	5 10 11 23 38
2020-09-23	3	2nd	3 10 21 23 27
2020-09-12	12	1st	10 11 17 21 26
2020-08-01	3	2nd	6 10 11 24 37
2020-07-22	7	3rd	3 5 10 17 25
2020-06-27	7	2nd	1 10 13 14 17
2020-06-03	6	2nd	3 10 22 34 40
2020-05-13	2	2nd	8 10 27 30 40
2020-05-06	14	2nd	1 10 23 26 43
2020-03-18	11	3rd	4 8 10 11 31
2020-02-08	3	2nd	4 10 14 24 41
2020-01-29	9	2nd	3 10 21 29 40
2019-12-28	6	3rd	1 2 10 21 25
2019-12-07	15	3rd	3 8 10 11 30
2019-10-16	16	1st	10 11 14 23 45
2019-08-21	3	2nd	2 10 25 27 28
2019-08-10	2	2nd	5 10 20 22 28
2019-08-03	28	1st	10 30 36 41 42
2019-04-27	6	1st	10 11 16 25 42
2019-04-06	13	2nd	4 10 23 26 39
2019-02-20	10	2nd	2 10 21 28 35
2019-01-16	28	2nd	2 10 33 35 45
2018-10-10	8	3rd	2 3 10 16 24
2018-09-12	20	4th	1 3 8 10 17
2018-07-04	24	1st	10 34 37 41 44
2018-04-11	1	2nd	3 10 13 24 31
2018-04-07	3	1st	10 17 19 40 43
2018-03-28	28	2nd	9 10 18 37 43
2017-12-20	2	2nd	6 10 11 21 39
2017-12-13	30	1st	10 34 38 43 45
2017-08-30	9	1st	10 23 28 29 42
2017-07-29	8	1st	10 12 16 21 44
2017-07-01	20	1st	10 11 27 38 39
2017-04-22	15	1st	10 15 29 36 37
2017-03-01	3	2nd	4 10 22 36 43
2017-02-18	3	1st	10 26 27 30 37
2017-02-08	4	1st	10 20 22 24 38
2017-01-25	23	3rd	3 6 10 13 35
2016-11-05	4	2nd	3 10 19 36 44
2016-10-22	5	4th	1 5 6 10 36
2016-10-05	1	2nd	6 10 15 39 43
2016-10-01	2	3rd	4 5 10 27 28
2016-09-24	6	3rd	2 3 10 23 40
2016-09-03	2	2nd	3 10 17 20 45
2016-08-27	1	3rd	7 8 10 14 28
2016-08-24	16	1st	10 15 20 27 42
2016-06-29	6	2nd	8 10 12 23 40
2016-06-08	7	2nd	4 10 14 17 32
2016-05-14	3	2nd	1 10 17 22 33
2016-05-04	5	1st	10 12 29 38 41
2016-04-16	11	1st	10 14 15 35 36
2016-03-09	12	2nd	7 10 18 20 32
2016-01-27	1	2nd	9 10 20 31 39
2016-01-23	1	1st	10 17 21 33 36
2016-01-20	6	1st	10 20 29 35 37
2015-12-30	5	2nd	4 10 11 17 19
2015-12-12	5	2nd	9 10 12 22 31
2015-11-25	1	2nd	4 10 11 29 43
2015-11-21	14	1st	10 16 20 21 43
2015-10-03	11	2nd	2 10 12 34 38
2015-08-26	16	3rd	4 5 10 40 42
2015-07-01	3	3rd	4 7 10 13 45
2015-06-20	19	1st	10 12 20 41 43
2015-04-15	5	2nd	1 10 20 24 35
2015-03-28	11	2nd	6 10 13 28 36
2015-02-18	22	3rd	2 9 10 30 35
2014-12-03	9	2nd	1 10 15 22 41
2014-11-01	11	1st	10 20 30 38 39
2014-09-24	2	2nd	9 10 15 18 28
2014-09-17	4	2nd	1 10 12 27 38
2014-09-03	21	2nd	7 10 19 34 40
2014-06-21	7	2nd	5 10 21 37 45
2014-05-28	—	2nd	1 10 13 28 31