Number 4

In Montana Cash under the 5/45 · since May 2014 rules — 1,296 draws, 5 from 1–45.

123times drawn · chance expected 144 −1.86σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

10.6average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0

118longest completed wait · <0.1% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 123 times in 1,296 draws against 144.0 expected, −1.86σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 123 times in 1,296 draws · average wait 10.6 draws · longest completed wait 118 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest91 · chance 91.8
2nd smallest30 · chance 29.0
3rd smallest2 · chance 2.2
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 11.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

8 10 11 17 24 30

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-07	15	1st	4 7 12 24 30
2026-08-15	10	1st	4 8 30 38 43
2026-07-11	17	1st	4 30 32 34 37
2026-05-13	6	2nd	2 4 13

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-09-18	2	1st	4 18 23 34 36
2024-09-11	4	1st	4 9 16 32 42
2024-08-28	6	1st	4 9 16 27 38
2024-08-07	1	1st	4 10 18 24 26
2024-08-03	9	1st	4 11 26 29 30
2024-07-03	3	2nd	3 4 5 16 39
2024-06-22	9	1st	4 13 21 33 40
2024-05-22	2	2nd	1 4 20 24 31
2024-05-15	7	1st	4 17 19 34 42
2024-04-20	6	1st	4 14 20 28 44
2024-03-30	21	1st	4 11 17 26 30
2024-01-17	23	1st	4 9 15 20 39
2023-10-28	5	1st	4 12 25 40 41
2023-10-11	16	1st	4 7 18 23 34
2023-08-16	11	1st	4 8 20 24 33
2023-07-08	1	2nd	2 4 25 28 31
2023-07-05	3	2nd	3 4 13 25 38
2023-06-24	20	1st	4 12 41 42 45
2023-04-15	17	1st	4 5 18 23 35
2023-02-15	8	1st	4 25 31 33 36
2023-01-18	9	1st	4 8 27 33 39
2022-12-17	2	2nd	3 4 27 31 43
2022-12-10	4	2nd	3 4 31 43 44
2022-11-26	4	1st	4 5 10 14 33
2022-11-12	9	1st	4 5 6 8 42
2022-10-12	6	2nd	3 4 12 33 41
2022-09-21	45	1st	4 12 18 23 25
2022-04-16	5	1st	4 13 15 42 44
2022-03-30	12	1st	4 26 29 31 43
2022-02-16	9	1st	4 12 15 21 29
2022-01-15	2	1st	4 16 23 33 41
2022-01-08	118	1st	4 16 36 38 39
2020-11-21	4	1st	4 5 26 35 37
2020-11-07	9	1st	4 23 24 28 44
2020-10-07	9	3rd	1 2 4 8 13
2020-09-05	32	2nd	3 4 11 44 45
2020-05-16	11	1st	4 8 28 30 39
2020-04-08	1	1st	4 17 19 27 44
2020-04-04	2	1st	4 6 16 23 28
2020-03-28	3	1st	4 8 12 13 18
2020-03-18	5	1st	4 8 10 11 31
2020-02-29	6	1st	4 18 19 32 36
2020-02-08	11	1st	4 10 14 24 41
2020-01-01	2	1st	4 18 20 26 30
2019-12-25	35	2nd	3 4 8 24 25
2019-08-24	3	3rd	1 3 4 13 44
2019-08-14	4	1st	4 15 27 34 44
2019-07-31	5	2nd	1 4 15 23 38
2019-07-13	17	1st	4 5 17 22 40
2019-05-15	11	1st	4 11 13 16 34
2019-04-06	24	1st	4 10 23 26 39
2019-01-12	4	1st	4 22 29 30 42
2018-12-29	7	2nd	1 4 18 21 45
2018-12-05	18	1st	4 13 32 37 44
2018-10-03	1	1st	4 8 12 19 21
2018-09-29	3	1st	4 17 24 29 33
2018-09-19	5	1st	4 7 11 33 41
2018-09-01	5	1st	4 5 8 24 29
2018-08-15	11	2nd	2 4 11 18 37
2018-07-07	41	1st	4 8 28 29 38
2018-02-14	3	1st	4 7 14 17 36
2018-02-03	23	1st	4 8 26 31 40
2017-11-15	72	1st	4 15 17 22 34
2017-03-08	2	1st	4 14 17 19 26
2017-03-01	1	1st	4 10 22 36 43
2017-02-25	4	1st	4 27 30 39 40
2017-02-11	22	2nd	2 4 16 32 36
2016-11-26	2	2nd	2 4 22 27 43
2016-11-19	14	2nd	3 4 11 26 30
2016-10-01	14	1st	4 5 10 27 28
2016-08-13	16	2nd	2 4 20 39 40
2016-06-18	3	1st	4 24 34 43 45
2016-06-08	9	1st	4 10 14 17 32
2016-05-07	3	1st	4 6 7 30 36
2016-04-27	5	1st	4 5 7 24 45
2016-04-09	1	2nd	1 4 22 29 31
2016-04-06	28	1st	4 20 25 41 43
2015-12-30	10	1st	4 10 11 17 19
2015-11-25	10	1st	4 10 11 29 43
2015-10-21	15	1st	4 7 19 25 28
2015-08-29	1	2nd	1 4 17 24 26
2015-08-26	12	1st	4 5 10 40 42
2015-07-15	2	1st	4 21 30 39 43
2015-07-08	2	1st	4 14 18 22 27
2015-07-01	4	1st	4 7 10 13 45
2015-06-17	8	1st	4 11 34 42 43
2015-05-20	6	2nd	2 4 7 22 23
2015-04-29	11	1st	4 14 29 30 45
2015-03-21	1	1st	4 15 32 34 42
2015-03-18	25	1st	4 6 11 13 32
2014-12-20	7	2nd	1 4 21 23 40
2014-11-26	5	2nd	2 4 28 30 37
2014-11-08	18	1st	4 19 20 41 42
2014-09-06	11	2nd	3 4 16 29 43
2014-07-30	2	1st	4 12 16 22 32
2014-07-23	3	1st	4 8 39 41 42
2014-07-12	8	1st	4 8 25 32 45
2014-06-14	6	1st	4 23 27 31 40
2014-05-24	—	2nd	2 4 6 16 22