Saturday, 30 December 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 15, 19, 40) with the draw of 12 February 2020 — its closest relative in 1,005 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 15% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 December 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 121 — the 58th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.