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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).
Drawn 13 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, +1.66σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 13 times in 83 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 13 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 13 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 19 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 13 is picked about 0.92× as often as an indifferent choice — 31st most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 13 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 13 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2010-08-14 | 10 | 2nd | 81328303336 |
| 2010-07-10 | 6 | 2nd | 61333404355 |
| 2010-06-19 | 2 | 1st | 132226283552 |
| 2010-06-12 | 7 | 2nd | 81318192959 |
| 2010-05-19 | 9 | 4th | 249132645 |
| 2010-04-17 | 4 | 2nd | 81325344654 |
| 2010-04-03 | 2 | 3rd | 91213142746 |
| 2010-03-27 | 13 | 2nd | 11317424753 |
| 2010-02-10 | 4 | 1st | 133138424346 |
| 2010-01-27 | — | 1st | 133140525758 |