Number 30

In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 8 +0.57σ

7draws waiting · a wait this long: 53% for any number

6.6average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8

21longest completed wait · 67% chance of one at least that long

30 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, +0.57σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 30, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 83 draws · average wait 6.6 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 7 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.3
2nd smallest0 · chance 1.5
3rd smallest2 · chance 3.2
4th smallest5 · chance 3.2
5th smallest3 · chance 1.5
6th smallest0 · chance 0.3

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

29 4 18 7 19 21

Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2010-09-22	5	4th	4 18 21 30 44 59
2010-09-04	6	4th	7 15 18 30 42 57
2010-08-14	1	4th	8 13 28 30 33 36

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.