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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).
Drawn 9 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, +0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 9 times in 83 draws · average wait 9.0 draws · longest completed wait 31 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 27 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 27 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 11 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2010-06-23 | 5 | 1st | 111933404355 |
| 2010-06-05 | 9 | 1st | 112236405152 |
| 2010-05-05 | 10 | 2nd | 81115245253 |
| 2010-03-31 | 5 | 1st | 111620232536 |
| 2010-03-13 | 10 | 1st | 111925293055 |
| 2010-02-06 | — | 2nd | 21132424748 |