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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

LotteryOracle

LotteryOracle reports what happened; it does not predict what is next. Every draw is independent — no number is ever "due".

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New York Lotto · every number

38

Number 38

In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).

Main numbersStars6/59 + 1/59 · since Oct 20106/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010
5times drawn · chance expected 8 −1.25σ
31draws waiting · a wait this long: 4% for any number
10.0average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
18longest completed wait · 51% chance of one at least that long
38 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 5 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, −1.25σ. Each draw is independent: after 31 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

38

Number 38, draw by draw

Drawn 5 times in 83 draws · average wait 10.0 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 31 draws now

6 draws: 2010-02-10 to 2010-03-031 draws: 2010-03-03 to 2010-03-0618 draws: 2010-03-06 to 2010-05-0815 draws: 2010-05-08 to 2010-06-30Still waiting — at least 31 draws since 2010-06-302010-02-102010-03-032010-03-062010-05-082010-06-302010-01-022010-10-16

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 1 time2 draws: 0 times3 draws: 0 times4 draws: 0 times5 draws: 0 times6 draws: 1 time7 draws: 0 times8 draws: 0 times9 draws: 0 times10 draws: 0 times11 draws: 0 times12 draws: 0 times13 draws: 0 times14 draws: 0 times15 draws: 1 time16 draws: 0 times17 draws: 0 times18 draws: 1 time19 draws: 0 times20 draws: 0 times21 draws: 0 times22 draws: 0 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 2nd smallest0 · chance 0.2
  • 3rd smallest1 · chance 1.0
  • 4th smallest2 · chance 1.8
  • 5th smallest0 · chance 1.5
  • 6th smallest2 · chance 0.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

316434623

Never drawn alongside 38 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 38 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers above 31 ×0.86

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 38 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2010-06-30156th4627283138
2010-05-08184th73133384546
2010-03-0616th356142238
2010-03-0364th21730384353
2010-02-10—3rd133138424346
← number 37Every numbernumber 39 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.