Number 40

In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).

14times drawn · chance expected 8 +2.02σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

5.9average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8

17longest completed wait · 92% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 14 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, +2.02σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 14 times in 83 draws · average wait 5.9 draws · longest completed wait 17 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest1 · chance 0.5
3rd smallest1 · chance 2.2
4th smallest7 · chance 4.8
5th smallest4 · chance 4.8
6th smallest1 · chance 1.8

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

43 3 6 11 13 27

Never drawn alongside 19 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 17 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2010-10-16	17	6th	1 11 13 14 27 40
2010-08-18	11	5th	15 17 18 33 40 45
2010-07-10	5	4th	6 13 33 40 43 55

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.