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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).
Drawn 11 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, +0.93σ. Each draw is independent: after 13 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 83 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 17 · waiting 13 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 19 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 22 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 22 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 19 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 19 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 19 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2010-06-12 | 3 | 4th | 81318192959 |
| 2010-06-02 | 3 | 5th | 61016181953 |
| 2010-05-22 | 7 | 3rd | 11419225258 |
| 2010-04-28 | 11 | 4th | 1715194950 |
| 2010-03-20 | 2 | 2nd | 71927293035 |
| 2010-03-13 | 16 | 2nd | 111925293055 |
| 2010-01-16 | 3 | 1st | 192127394849 |
| 2010-01-06 | — | 2nd | 11922273946 |