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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).
Drawn 6 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, −0.89σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 6 times in 83 draws · average wait 15.8 draws · longest completed wait 43 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 39 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 35 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 35 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 39 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 39 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 39 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2010-06-16 | 43 | 1st | 394043535457 |
| 2010-01-16 | 3 | 4th | 192127394849 |
| 2010-01-06 | — | 5th | 11922273946 |