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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In New York Lotto under the 6/59 + 1/55 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2010 rules — 83 draws, 6 from 1–59 (an earlier era).
Drawn 9 times in 83 draws against 8.4 expected, +0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 9 times in 83 draws · average wait 7.3 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 29 of the other 58 numbers; chance expects about 27 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 59. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 6/59 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2010-09-01 | 7 | 2nd | 81619254548 |
| 2010-08-07 | 6 | 2nd | 51629424651 |
| 2010-07-17 | 13 | 4th | 5915163448 |
| 2010-06-02 | 18 | 3rd | 61016181953 |
| 2010-03-31 | 2 | 2nd | 111620232536 |
| 2010-03-24 | — | 2nd | 121629424952 |