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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Québec 49 under the 6/49 · since May 2025 rules — 145 draws, 6 from 1–49.
Drawn 16 times in 145 draws against 17.8 expected, −0.44σ. Each draw is independent: after 17 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 16 times in 145 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 17 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 4 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 5 | 1st | 22122232830 |
| 2026-07-25 | 5 | 1st | 269192745 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2 | 1st | 2310192648 |
| 2026-07-01 | 7 | 1st | 21320244446 |
| 2026-06-06 | 22 | 1st | 21528404349 |
| 2026-03-21 | 2 | 1st | 2420313746 |
| 2026-03-14 | 8 | 2nd | 1216202630 |
| 2026-02-14 | 18 | 1st | 2920233249 |
| 2025-12-13 | 1 | 1st | 2710162242 |
| 2025-12-10 | 4 | 1st | 2312171838 |
| 2025-11-26 | 3 | 2nd | 1210131548 |
| 2025-11-15 | 7 | 1st | 246192536 |
| 2025-10-18 | 28 | 1st | 21618203140 |
| 2025-07-12 | 2 | 1st | 21115334447 |
| 2025-07-05 | 9 | 1st | 2821252935 |
| 2025-06-04 | — | 1st | 2624324148 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.