In Lotto 6aus49 under the 6/49 + 1/9 · since Sep 2024 rules — 213 draws, 6 from 1–49.
25times drawn · chance expected 26 −0.23σ
26draws waiting · a wait this long: 4% for any number
7.8average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
38longest completed wait · 17% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 25 times in 213 draws against 26.1 expected, −0.23σ. Each draw is independent: after 26 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 25 times in 213 draws · average wait 7.8 draws · longest completed wait 38 · waiting 26 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 2 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 4 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.