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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Lotto 6aus49 under the 6/49 + 1/9 · since Sep 2024 rules — 213 draws, 6 from 1–49.
Drawn 24 times in 213 draws against 26.1 expected, −0.44σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 24 times in 213 draws · average wait 8.8 draws · longest completed wait 25 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 4 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 25 | 6th | 141529323440 |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | 3rd | 253640434449 |
| 2026-05-06 | 6 | 5th | 101319384048 |
| 2026-04-15 | 12 | 5th | 31725284042 |
| 2026-03-04 | 5 | 6th | 11517243740 |
| 2026-02-14 | 1 | 5th | 3919204043 |
| 2026-02-11 | 15 | 6th | 8918203740 |
| 2025-12-20 | 16 | 5th | 122332334042 |
| 2025-10-22 | 4 | 6th | 41419263540 |
| 2025-10-08 | 23 | 5th | 6710204042 |
| 2025-07-19 | 5 | 6th | 4612353640 |
| 2025-07-02 | 7 | 4th | 131739404445 |
| 2025-06-07 | 17 | 5th | 131723254046 |
| 2025-04-09 | 1 | 6th | 162431343740 |
| 2025-04-05 | 21 | 5th | 101221354041 |
| 2025-01-22 | 7 | 5th | 93134354041 |
| 2024-12-28 | 12 | 5th | 71318284044 |
| 2024-11-16 | 2 | 6th | 111415193940 |
| 2024-11-09 | 1 | 5th | 21833394047 |
| 2024-11-06 | 1 | 5th | 141728334044 |
| 2024-11-02 | 3 | 6th | 8917203740 |
| 2024-10-23 | 3 | 5th | 101825374049 |
| 2024-10-12 | 2 | 5th | 51415334043 |
| 2024-10-05 | — | 5th | 51012284044 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.