In Lotto 6aus49 under the 6/49 + 1/9 · since Sep 2024 rules — 213 draws, 6 from 1–49.
34times drawn · chance expected 26 +1.66σ
6draws waiting · a wait this long: 52% for any number
6.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
19longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 34 times in 213 draws against 26.1 expected, +1.66σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 34 times in 213 draws · average wait 6.1 draws · longest completed wait 19 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 1 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.