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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Lotto 6aus49 under the 6/49 + 1/9 · since Sep 2024 rules — 213 draws, 6 from 1–49.
Drawn 16 times in 213 draws against 26.1 expected, −2.11σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 16 times in 213 draws · average wait 12.5 draws · longest completed wait 33 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 45 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 10 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 45 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 45 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 3 | 6th | 162025333945 |
| 2026-09-02 | 5 | 6th | 81923324445 |
| 2026-08-15 | 11 | 6th | 71324263245 |
| 2026-07-08 | 33 | 6th | 152830313745 |
| 2026-03-14 | 4 | 6th | 192028324445 |
| 2026-02-28 | 22 | 6th | 1619334445 |
| 2025-12-13 | 27 | 6th | 61121323745 |
| 2025-09-06 | 11 | 6th | 2416294445 |
| 2025-07-30 | 8 | 6th | 11924283945 |
| 2025-07-02 | 2 | 6th | 131739404445 |
| 2025-06-25 | 32 | 5th | 212735424546 |
| 2025-03-05 | 2 | 5th | 42226294546 |
| 2025-02-26 | 14 | 6th | 121722242945 |
| 2025-01-08 | 1 | 5th | 92728304549 |
| 2025-01-04 | 13 | 6th | 2624303645 |
| 2024-11-20 | — | 6th | 71525263445 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 45 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.