In Lottario under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 6 from 1–45.
22times drawn · chance expected 14 +2.20σ
7draws waiting · a wait this long: 42% for any number
4.3average wait between appearances · chance says 7.5
18longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 22 times in 107 draws against 14.3 expected, +2.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 0 times, counted separately.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 22 times in 107 draws · average wait 4.3 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 7 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 4 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.