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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Lottario under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 6 from 1–45.
Drawn 12 times in 107 draws against 14.3 expected, −0.64σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 1 time, counted separately.
Drawn 12 times in 107 draws · average wait 8.9 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 1 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 1 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 20 | 1st | 126223337 |
| 2026-03-28 | 6 | 1st | 12573438 |
| 2026-02-14 | 10 | 1st | 12131363745 |
| 2025-12-06 | 4 | 1st | 1321243241 |
| 2025-11-08 | 16 | 1st | 1614151921 |
| 2025-07-19 | 11 | 1st | 189101642 |
| 2025-05-03 | 1 | 1st | 1322263435 |
| 2025-04-26 | 2 | 1st | 12125334243 |
| 2025-04-12 | 4 | 1st | 1210171828 |
| 2025-03-15 | 9 | 1st | 1210262735 |
| 2025-01-11 | 15 | 1st | 12632343545 |
| 2024-09-28 | — | 1st | 1210143341 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 1 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.