In BC/49 under the 6/49 + 1/49 · since Nov 2024 rules — 202 draws, 6 from 1–49.
36times drawn · chance expected 25 +2.42σ
8draws waiting · a wait this long: 40% for any number
5.5average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
23longest completed wait · 87% chance of one at least that long
40 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 36 times in 202 draws against 24.7 expected, +2.42σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 2 times, counted separately.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 36 times in 202 draws · average wait 5.5 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.