In BC/49 under the 6/49 + 1/49 · since Nov 2024 rules — 202 draws, 6 from 1–49.
33times drawn · chance expected 25 +1.77σ
10draws waiting · a wait this long: 31% for any number
5.8average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
20longest completed wait · 94% chance of one at least that long
21 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 33 times in 202 draws against 24.7 expected, +1.77σ. Each draw is independent: after 10 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 4 times, counted separately.
21
Number 21, draw by draw
Drawn 33 times in 202 draws · average wait 5.8 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 10 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 2 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.