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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Lotto under the 6/40 + 1/40 · since Oct 2024 rules — 208 draws, 6 from 1–40.
Drawn 28 times in 208 draws against 31.2 expected, −0.62σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 3 times, counted separately.
Drawn 28 times in 208 draws · average wait 7.4 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 2 | 2nd | 346172739 |
| 2026-09-26 | 1 | 2nd | 2425263839 |
| 2026-09-23 | 4 | 1st | 4817232834 |
| 2026-09-09 | 2 | 1st | 4920213436 |
| 2026-09-02 | 16 | 1st | 4915162933 |
| 2026-07-08 | 27 | 2nd | 149182140 |
| 2026-04-04 | 1 | 1st | 4623293440 |
| 2026-04-01 | 3 | 1st | 4822242636 |
| 2026-03-21 | 11 | 1st | 41113162038 |
| 2026-02-11 | 6 | 1st | 41921283336 |
| 2026-01-21 | 8 | 1st | 4814192829 |
| 2025-12-24 | 4 | 2nd | 345223438 |
| 2025-12-10 | 8 | 1st | 41121333639 |
| 2025-11-12 | 12 | 1st | 42224263039 |
| 2025-10-01 | 4 | 1st | 41013163739 |
| 2025-09-17 | 3 | 2nd | 3411173536 |
| 2025-09-06 | 3 | 1st | 4611192936 |
| 2025-08-27 | 7 | 2nd | 1427313237 |
| 2025-08-02 | 9 | 1st | 4613212229 |
| 2025-07-02 | 9 | 1st | 4811232636 |
| 2025-05-31 | 8 | 1st | 4810152234 |
| 2025-05-03 | 2 | 1st | 4713262738 |
| 2025-04-26 | 10 | 1st | 4713152433 |
| 2025-03-22 | 6 | 2nd | 147162829 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.