In Lotto under the 6/40 + 1/40 · since Oct 2024 rules — 208 draws, 6 from 1–40.
38times drawn · chance expected 31 +1.32σ
8draws waiting · a wait this long: 32% for any number
5.2average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
22longest completed wait · 71% chance of one at least that long
21 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 38 times in 208 draws against 31.2 expected, +1.32σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 0 times, counted separately.
21
Number 21, draw by draw
Drawn 38 times in 208 draws · average wait 5.2 draws · longest completed wait 22 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.3 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.