In Lotto under the 6/40 + 1/40 · since Oct 2024 rules — 208 draws, 6 from 1–40.
26times drawn · chance expected 31 −1.01σ
4draws waiting · a wait this long: 61% for any number
7.9average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
30longest completed wait · 20% chance of one at least that long
38 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 26 times in 208 draws against 31.2 expected, −1.01σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 7 times, counted separately.
38
Number 38, draw by draw
Drawn 26 times in 208 draws · average wait 7.9 draws · longest completed wait 30 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 39 numbers; chance expects about 1 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.