In Lotto under the 6/40 + 1/40 · since Oct 2024 rules — 208 draws, 6 from 1–40.
34times drawn · chance expected 31 +0.54σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
6.2average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
20longest completed wait · 79% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 34 times in 208 draws against 31.2 expected, +0.54σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 4 times, counted separately.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 34 times in 208 draws · average wait 6.2 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 39 numbers; chance expects about 0.5 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.