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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$800,000,000
The crowdHeld 17% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025draw 137 of 159 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 28 July 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 30 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 9% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 10 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 136 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (34, 49, 59) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 February 2026 — its closest relative in 136 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 21% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (24 July 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 260 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. Side-by-side numbers: 48–49. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →49 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 64% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈15M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 20,966 winners, 17% fewer than the 25k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5 + Mega Ball | 1 | $800,000,000 |
| Match 5 | 2 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 4 + Mega Ball | 15 | $10,000 |
| Match 4 | 349 | $500 |
| Match 3 + Mega Ball | 917 | $200 |
| Match 3 | 20,966 | $10.00 |
| Match 2 + Mega Ball | 20,770 | $10.00 |
| Match 1 + Mega Ball | 166,182 | $7.00 |
| Match 0 + Mega Ball | 436,792 | $5.00 |