In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/6 · since Apr 2023 rules — 522 draws, 5 from 1–41.
52times drawn · chance expected 64 −1.56σ
6draws waiting · a wait this long: 52% for any number
9.9average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
55longest completed wait · 4% chance of one at least that long
40 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 52 times in 522 draws against 63.7 expected, −1.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 52 times in 522 draws · average wait 9.9 draws · longest completed wait 55 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 40 numbers; chance expects about 0.2 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.