In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/6 · since Apr 2023 rules — 523 draws, 5 from 1–41.
55times drawn · chance expected 64 −1.17σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 77% for any number
9.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
35longest completed wait · 48% chance of one at least that long
30 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 55 times in 523 draws against 63.8 expected, −1.17σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
30
Number 30, draw by draw
Drawn 55 times in 523 draws · average wait 9.6 draws · longest completed wait 35 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.2 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.