In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/6 · since Apr 2023 rules — 523 draws, 5 from 1–41.
70times drawn · chance expected 64 +0.83σ
5draws waiting · a wait this long: 59% for any number
7.4average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
40longest completed wait · 35% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 70 times in 523 draws against 63.8 expected, +0.83σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 70 times in 523 draws · average wait 7.4 draws · longest completed wait 40 · waiting 5 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.