In Megabucks Plus under the 5/41 + 1/6 · since Apr 2023 rules — 523 draws, 5 from 1–41.
60times drawn · chance expected 64 −0.51σ
20draws waiting · a wait this long: 8% for any number
8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
34longest completed wait · 56% chance of one at least that long
16 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 60 times in 523 draws against 63.8 expected, −0.51σ. Each draw is independent: after 20 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
16
Number 16, draw by draw
Drawn 60 times in 523 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 34 · waiting 20 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.