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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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LotteryOracle reports what happened; it does not predict what is next. Every draw is independent — no number is ever "due".

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Fantasy 5 · every number

29

Number 29

In Fantasy 5 under the 5/39 · Apr 2010 – Mar 2011 rules — 285 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

5/41 · since Mar 20115/39 · Apr 2010 – Mar 2011
44times drawn · chance expected 37 +1.32σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 76% for any number
6.4average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8
28longest completed wait · 66% chance of one at least that long
29 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 44 times in 285 draws against 36.5 expected, +1.32σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

29

Number 29, draw by draw

Drawn 44 times in 285 draws · average wait 6.4 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 3 draws now

2 draws: 2010-04-14 to 2010-04-162 draws: 2010-04-16 to 2010-04-194 draws: 2010-04-19 to 2010-04-231 draws: 2010-04-23 to 2010-04-2410 draws: 2010-04-24 to 2010-05-062 draws: 2010-05-06 to 2010-05-089 draws: 2010-05-08 to 2010-05-191 draws: 2010-05-19 to 2010-05-2020 draws: 2010-05-20 to 2010-06-121 draws: 2010-06-12 to 2010-06-148 draws: 2010-06-14 to 2010-06-235 draws: 2010-06-23 to 2010-06-296 draws: 2010-06-29 to 2010-07-061 draws: 2010-07-06 to 2010-07-075 draws: 2010-07-07 to 2010-07-136 draws: 2010-07-13 to 2010-07-204 draws: 2010-07-20 to 2010-07-244 draws: 2010-07-24 to 2010-07-2912 draws: 2010-07-29 to 2010-08-128 draws: 2010-08-12 to 2010-08-216 draws: 2010-08-21 to 2010-08-2811 draws: 2010-08-28 to 2010-09-103 draws: 2010-09-10 to 2010-09-1413 draws: 2010-09-14 to 2010-09-292 draws: 2010-09-29 to 2010-10-011 draws: 2010-10-01 to 2010-10-0228 draws: 2010-10-02 to 2010-11-041 draws: 2010-11-04 to 2010-11-0510 draws: 2010-11-05 to 2010-11-1717 draws: 2010-11-17 to 2010-12-078 draws: 2010-12-07 to 2010-12-1611 draws: 2010-12-16 to 2010-12-295 draws: 2010-12-29 to 2011-01-049 draws: 2011-01-04 to 2011-01-143 draws: 2011-01-14 to 2011-01-181 draws: 2011-01-18 to 2011-01-192 draws: 2011-01-19 to 2011-01-215 draws: 2011-01-21 to 2011-01-275 draws: 2011-01-27 to 2011-02-023 draws: 2011-02-02 to 2011-02-051 draws: 2011-02-05 to 2011-02-0715 draws: 2011-02-07 to 2011-02-243 draws: 2011-02-24 to 2011-02-28Still waiting — at least 3 draws since 2011-02-282010-04-142010-04-162010-04-192010-04-232010-04-242010-05-062010-05-082010-05-192010-05-202010-06-122010-06-142010-06-232010-06-292010-07-062010-07-072010-07-132010-07-202010-07-242010-07-292010-08-122010-08-212010-08-282010-09-102010-09-142010-09-292010-10-012010-10-022010-11-042010-11-052010-11-172010-12-072010-12-162010-12-292011-01-042011-01-142011-01-182011-01-192011-01-212011-01-272011-02-022011-02-052011-02-072011-02-242011-02-282010-04-062011-03-03

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 8 times2 draws: 5 times3 draws: 4 times4 draws: 3 times5 draws: 5 times6 draws: 3 times7 draws: 0 times8 draws: 3 times9 draws: 2 times10 draws: 2 times11 draws: 2 times12 draws: 1 time13 draws: 1 time14 draws: 0 times15 draws: 1 time16 draws: 0 times17 draws: 1 time18 draws: 0 times19 draws: 0 times20 draws: 1 time21 draws: 0 times22 draws: 0 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 times25 draws: 0 times26 draws: 0 times27 draws: 0 times28 draws: 1 time29 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 29 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest0 · chance 0.1
  • 2nd smallest2 · chance 2.0
  • 3rd smallest14 · chance 10.1
  • 4th smallest15 · chance 19.5
  • 5th smallest13 · chance 12.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 4.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

41419222736

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 38 numbers; chance expected about 0.4 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 29 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 29 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2011-02-2833rd1021293437
2011-02-24153rd1322293537
2011-02-0712nd429303638
2011-02-0533rd1125
← number 28Every numbernumber 30 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 29 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.

29
30
33
2011-02-0255th914182829
2011-01-2753rd1418293638
2011-01-2124th25172930
2011-01-1914th517242934
2011-01-1835th15252729
2011-01-1493rd1727293438
2011-01-0453rd58293135
2010-12-29115th1015202329
2010-12-1684th1617222933
2010-12-07174th1116192936
2010-11-17104th412132936
2010-11-0513rd326293139
2010-11-04285th23142129
2010-10-0214th912192933
2010-10-0125th68152529
2010-09-29135th1722272829
2010-09-1435th712131829
2010-09-10113rd1124293436
2010-08-2864th1219272933
2010-08-2184th410132932
The other 20 appearances
2010-08-12124th1619202935
2010-07-2945th57112229
2010-07-2444th2362938
2010-07-2064th16232937
2010-07-1355th411222529
2010-07-0714th1424282931
2010-07-0665th314192729
2010-06-2953rd520293539
2010-06-2383rd219293239
2010-06-1413rd2022293637
2010-06-12203rd1322293234
2010-05-2015th14152729
2010-05-1994th1017242934
2010-05-0823rd48293335
2010-05-06105th68111429
2010-04-2413rd416293032
2010-04-2344th226272937
2010-04-1922nd1329323637
2010-04-1625th414192029
2010-04-14—4th2325282933