Number 28

In Fantasy 5 under the 5/39 · Apr 2010 – Mar 2011 rules — 285 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

36times drawn · chance expected 37 −0.10σ

7draws waiting · a wait this long: 44% for any number

7.8average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8

30longest completed wait · 48% chance of one at least that long

28 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 36 times in 285 draws against 36.5 expected, −0.10σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 28, draw by draw

Drawn 36 times in 285 draws · average wait 7.8 draws · longest completed wait 30 · waiting 7 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 28 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.2
2nd smallest1 · chance 2.2
3rd smallest12 · chance 9.4
4th smallest15 · chance 15.7
5th smallest8 · chance 8.6

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

24 19 1 14 18 33

Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 0.9 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 28 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 28 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2011-02-23	10	3rd	8 14 28 33 39
2011-02-11	7	3rd	16 20 28 30 34
2011-02-03	1	2nd	11 28 30 33 36
2011-02-02	1	4th	9 14 18 28 29
2011-02-01	19	4th	4 11 18 28 33
2011-01-10	16	5th	1 16 20 22 28
2010-12-22	4	5th	7 14 18 24 28
2010-12-17	12	3rd	7 18 28 30 36
2010-12-03	30	3rd	9 24 28 32 35
2010-10-29	8	3rd	4 10 28 36 39
2010-10-20	2	4th	11 23 27 28 37
2010-10-18	1	4th	8 13 24 28 38
2010-10-16	2	5th	1 12 24 26 28
2010-10-14	3	3rd	11 16 28 33 39
2010-10-11	2	3rd	9 20 28 30 39
2010-10-08	4	4th	3 15 16 28 39
2010-10-04	4	3rd	19 22 28 30 32
2010-09-29	21	4th	17 22 27 28 29
2010-09-04	9	4th	2 10 20 28 39
2010-08-25	2	4th	14 17 19 28 37
2010-08-23	3	3rd	9 19 28 33 34
2010-08-19	3	4th	1 5 16 28 37
2010-08-16	12	5th	5 13 15 22 28
2010-08-02	22	4th	1 5 24 28 34

The other 12 appearances

2010-07-07	17	3rd	14 24 28 29 31
2010-06-17	2	5th	2 4 15 26 28
2010-06-15	5	4th	8 12 25 28 35
2010-06-09	1	4th	4 5 19 28 36
2010-06-08	14	5th	3 8 10 15 28
2010-05-22	7	3rd	18 24 28 32 35
2010-05-14	6	4th	1 8 26 28 36
2010-05-07	2	5th	1 11 18 24 28
2010-05-05	5	5th	5 6 7 19 28
2010-04-29	13	4th	14 19 20 28 35
2010-04-14	3	3rd	23 25 28 29 33
2010-04-10	—	4th	17 19 24 28 37

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 28 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.

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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

Fantasy 5 · every number