In Fantasy 5 under the 5/39 · Apr 2010 – Mar 2011 rules — 285 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).
34times drawn · chance expected 37 −0.45σ
9draws waiting · a wait this long: 33% for any number
8.3average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8
28longest completed wait · 56% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 34 times in 285 draws against 36.5 expected, −0.45σ. Each draw is independent: after 9 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 34 times in 285 draws · average wait 8.3 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 9 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 38 numbers; chance expected about 1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.