Number 15

In Cowboy Draw under the 5/45 · since Mar 2015 rules — 1,206 draws, 5 from 1–45.

117times drawn · chance expected 134 −1.56σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 89% for any number

10.3average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0

53longest completed wait · 22% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 117 times in 1,206 draws against 134.0 expected, −1.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 117 times in 1,206 draws · average wait 10.3 draws · longest completed wait 53 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest25 · chance 23.6
2nd smallest52 · chance 49.0
3rd smallest33 · chance 34.1
4th smallest7 · chance 9.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 10.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

19 20 41 45 21 29

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-05	3	2nd	1 15 23 26 40
2026-09-24	1	1st	15 22 29 31 38
2026-09-21	4	2nd	1 15 26 29 39
2026-09-07	2	1st	15 17 42

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2025-01-02	19	3rd	1 11 15 24 45
2024-10-28	4	2nd	3 15 24 25 41
2024-10-14	3	1st	15 17 33 44 45
2024-10-03	4	4th	7 11 13 15 40
2024-09-19	14	3rd	7 12 15 22 42
2024-08-01	7	3rd	2 3 15 29 34
2024-07-08	5	2nd	6 15 25 33 44
2024-06-20	10	3rd	2 4 15 31 45
2024-05-16	26	1st	15 17 21 37 44
2024-02-15	4	3rd	5 11 15 27 35
2024-02-01	16	4th	10 11 13 15 23
2023-12-07	8	3rd	2 8 15 36 37
2023-11-09	22	3rd	7 14 15 26 44
2023-08-24	17	2nd	4 15 18 25 42
2023-06-26	5	2nd	14 15 19 38 43
2023-06-08	6	3rd	4 6 15 21 25
2023-05-18	49	3rd	9 10 15 34 41
2022-11-28	7	3rd	5 10 15 21 45
2022-11-03	13	3rd	9 11 15 27 43
2022-09-19	9	3rd	5 14 15 18 31
2022-08-18	20	4th	1 4 5 15 43
2022-06-09	8	2nd	9 15 21 22 42
2022-05-12	1	1st	15 23 29 33 43
2022-05-09	10	2nd	12 15 20 34 45
2022-04-04	6	3rd	9 11 15 20 25
2022-03-14	11	2nd	10 15 16 30 32
2022-02-03	17	1st	15 17 26 27 33
2021-12-06	1	3rd	6 9 15 20 32
2021-12-02	12	2nd	1 15 36 41 43
2021-10-21	8	2nd	6 15 19 20 35
2021-09-23	4	1st	15 19 20 27 35
2021-09-09	1	2nd	6 15 22 28 33
2021-09-06	20	4th	1 8 9 15 19
2021-06-28	7	2nd	12 15 22 29 38
2021-06-03	1	3rd	2 6 15 19 39
2021-05-31	11	1st	15 20 24 25 44
2021-04-22	37	1st	15 28 31 41 42
2020-12-14	4	1st	15 17 20 39 41
2020-11-30	2	2nd	10 15 28 36 44
2020-11-23	4	1st	15 19 20 34 42
2020-11-09	23	1st	15 26 34 38 43
2020-08-20	2	3rd	8 14 15 22 25
2020-08-13	2	1st	15 21 25 41 43
2020-08-06	24	3rd	9 10 15 38 41
2020-05-14	6	3rd	3 11 15 39 41
2020-04-23	17	2nd	13 15 25 33 34
2020-02-24	11	1st	15 21 29 42 45
2020-01-16	4	2nd	8 15 19 24 27
2020-01-02	12	2nd	5 15 39 42 45
2019-11-21	3	2nd	9 15 20 23 45
2019-11-11	3	3rd	4 14 15 19 36
2019-10-31	14	3rd	6 14 15 30 39
2019-09-12	53	2nd	3 15 19 22 40
2019-03-11	16	4th	5 7 11 15 42
2019-01-14	14	2nd	7 15 28 38 41
2018-11-26	2	3rd	2 8 15 18 39
2018-11-19	21	2nd	5 15 21 24 26
2018-09-06	32	2nd	3 15 18 19 33
2018-05-17	3	2nd	7 15 18 26 35
2018-05-07	3	2nd	2 15 20 36 45
2018-04-26	11	2nd	12 15 19 26 31
2018-03-19	1	2nd	12 15 19 26 32
2018-03-15	9	4th	3 10 13 15 41
2018-02-12	32	2nd	13 15 17 27 40
2017-10-23	3	2nd	14 15 20 21 44
2017-10-12	15	1st	15 18 19 20 44
2017-08-21	17	3rd	10 12 15 32 38
2017-06-22	13	2nd	1 15 19 20 36
2017-05-08	12	2nd	4 15 18 42 44
2017-03-27	7	2nd	14 15 16 30 35
2017-03-02	5	1st	15 18 23 35 42
2017-02-13	1	2nd	11 15 20 27 40
2017-02-09	5	3rd	2 13 15 27 45
2017-01-23	20	2nd	3 15 27 33 38
2016-11-14	5	3rd	2 3 15 22 37
2016-10-27	4	3rd	2 6 15 18 37
2016-10-13	7	2nd	11 15 18 22 42
2016-09-19	2	2nd	12 15 16 35 37
2016-09-12	3	2nd	5 15 22 29 31
2016-09-01	7	2nd	6 15 21 28 38
2016-08-08	9	2nd	10 15 16 28 35
2016-07-07	14	2nd	13 15 20 32 40
2016-05-19	6	2nd	6 15 16 37 43
2016-04-28	7	1st	15 24 29 40 45
2016-04-04	3	2nd	13 15 32 39 41
2016-03-24	13	2nd	1 15 17 27 34
2016-02-08	11	3rd	3 7 15 22 45
2015-12-31	25	2nd	12 15 27 28 29
2015-10-05	21	4th	1 5 12 15 29
2015-07-23	7	2nd	7 15 19 40 41
2015-06-29	5	1st	15 16 19 37 41
2015-06-08	13	1st	15 29 38 41 45
2015-04-23	—	3rd	3 7 15 19 35