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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$423,000,000
The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025draw 48 of 159 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 19 September 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 57 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 60% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 3 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 47 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 22, 42) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 May 2025 — its closest relative in 47 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 7.9% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (16 September 2025): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 151 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →22 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 33% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈7.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 plus Bonus Ball — 12,036 winners, 3% more than the 12k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 220,120 | $5.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 93,116 | $7.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 12,036 | $10.00 |
| Match 3 | 12,632 | $10.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 561 | $200 |
| Match 4 | 203 | $500 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 8 | $10,000 |
| Match 5 | 0 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $423,000,000 |