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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$25,000,000
The crowdHeld 55% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/56 + 1/46 · Jun 2005 – Oct 2013draw 720 of 869 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
Mega Millions was a 5/56 + 1/46 · Jun 2005 – Oct 2013 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 719 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 May 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 8 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 0% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 64 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 719 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (10, 11, 12) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 March 2011 — its closest relative in 719 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 91% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 May 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 39% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (2% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 71 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 143. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 11–12. 32% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →10 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 3.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈19M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 2,575 winners, 108% more than the 1.2k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 253,614 | $2.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 152,844 | $3.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 30,248 | $10.00 |
| Match 3 | 96,223 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 2,291 | $150 |
| Match 4 | 2,575 | $150 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 61 | $10,000 |
| Match 5 | 8 | $250,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 1 | $25,000,000 |