In EuroDreams under the 6/40 + 1/5 · since Nov 2023 rules — 306 draws, 6 from 1–40.
42times drawn · chance expected 46 −0.62σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 72% for any number
7.2average wait between appearances · chance says 6.7
39longest completed wait · 8% chance of one at least that long
2 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 42 times in 306 draws against 45.9 expected, −0.62σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
2
Number 2, draw by draw
Drawn 42 times in 306 draws · average wait 7.2 draws · longest completed wait 39 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 39 numbers; chance expects about 0.2 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.