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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
ES · ball game
Latest drawMonday, 12 October 2026
Jackpot€34,800,000
Top prizeNot won
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 12 Oct 2026, 21:45 UTC.
6 numbers from 1–49, plus 1 from 1–49. 4,201 draws held here since 1985-10-17 — 1,643 under the current rules.
La Primitiva changed its number pool then, which started a new era. Only the 1,643 draws since count towards number statistics — mixing draws from before a rule change would make any frequency meaningless.
Your numbers, read by every tool
Type the numbers you always play. Has the line ever come up? How close has La Primitiva come? What has each number done, what does the line look like, and has the same set turned up anywhere else in the world?
Every tool, for this game
Each one opens with La Primitiva already selected. The line under every title is true of this game’s rules right now — not a promise about its next draw.

In 1,643 draws every number is expected about 201 times, and a ball favoured by more than 27% over its share would already have shown — see which ones strayed, and how far chance allows.

A number waits 8 draws on average; 4% of the time it waits 25 or more. It is never “due”.

The 6 numbers add up to about 150, give or take 33. Most tickets sit in that bell — and so do most draws.

49.5% of draws contain two numbers side by side. That is the rules talking, not luck.

1,176 possible pairs, each expected together 21.0 times so far — and about 12 will look “special” by chance alone.

All 49 numbers as a constellation of who appeared with whom — indistinguishable from a shuffled sky.

56% of draws repeat a number from the draw before. A whole draw repeating: 9.2% likely by now.

Sorted, the numbers sit about 7.1 apart on average — and every “spread” you can name is exactly as likely as every other.

It takes about 35 draws for every one of the 49 numbers to appear at least once. The last few are the slow ones.

13,983,816 possible tickets. Every one has a face — and a typicality score you can look up.

Seven independent tests of randomness run live against all 1,643 draws. Any of them can fail; watch whether they do.

The lowest number lands near 7, the highest near 43. Position is a property of sorting, not of the balls.

6/49 rescaled onto the same axes as every other game here. One law, many machines.

Six documented cases of a beaten lottery. Not one involved patterns in past draws.

What the world believes about 7, 8, 13 and 17 — and what every machine says back.

At 30 million tickets, an average line keeps about 41% of a jackpot it wins. Unpopular numbers keep more — and still lose money.

A full wheel of 10 numbers here is 210 tickets. A guarantee is real; a profit is not.

Five folk claims about 6/49 games, each answered with the closed form that kills it — never a tip for the next draw.
Take the record with youRSSJSON feedCSV, every drawDraw nights, in your calendarAPI

Lock a past-only rule, score it on later draws, and compare every hit with the exact 6-of-49 overlap law.

This is a without-replacement ball game; the Digit Laboratory is for Pick 3 and Pick 4.
Not for this game
The Chernoff Map reads the straight tier of a digit game, which counts tickets on one exact number; a ball game has no such row.
Not for this game
This game draws once a day, so it has no second draw to compare its first with.
Not for this gameThis draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 October 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 45 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 33% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,642 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 6 numbers (5, 42, 45) with the draw of 12 April 2025 — its closest relative in 1,642 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (10 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 160 — the 61th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →42 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 51% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈4.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: 4 — 3,949 winners, 14% fewer than the 4.6k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| 6+R | 0 | €0.00 |
| 6 | 0 | €0.00 |
| 5+C | 2 | €46,102 |
| 5 | 75 | €2,254 |
| 4 | 3,949 | €62.26 |
| 3 | 77,977 | €8.00 |
| R | 458,451 | €1.00 |
What the top prize has been, draw by draw. It climbs while nobody wins and drops to the floor when somebody does — the sawtooth every rollover game draws.
The jackpot has gone 0 draws without a winner. The typical wait here is 0.0 draws.
Happenedwhat chance predicts
Completed waits between wins, against the geometric law those waits follow if every draw is an independent chance at the jackpot. The law takes its one parameter from the waits themselves, so this compares shape, not level.
At the €34,800,000 jackpot last advertised, and the 4,749,199 lines the last prize table implies were in play.
A €1.00 line returns about €2.02 — 100% of what it costs. That is the price of the entertainment, and it does not change with which numbers are on the line.
€1 a line. Spain taxes 20% of the prize above €40,000. At these sales a winning line expects about 0.34 co-winners, leaving 85% of the prize.
An average line would break even at a headline of about €35M — and even that is a break-even, not a profit, because a prize that size sells more lines and the extra sharing takes most of it back.
A model, with every parameter on the table — the whole calculation, and its sources → · the same figures for every game we can price →
Open any draw to read it by every tool — the same six readings the latest result gets above, each against what chance predicted at the time.
| Draws waited | Happened | Chance says |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1,627 | 1,627.0 |
| 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ | 0 | 0.0 |
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,642 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Scored 19 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 2% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,641 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (10, 16, 22, 29) with the draw of 26 July 2025 — its closest relative in 1,641 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (8 October 2026): 16 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 115 — the 14th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →18 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 17% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 51% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,640 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (7, 14, 16, 37) with the draw of 24 January 2015 — its closest relative in 1,640 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (5 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 101 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 6–7. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →7 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 28% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 65% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,639 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 10, 25, 49) with the draw of 23 December 2024 — its closest relative in 1,639 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (3 October 2026): 20 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 148 — the 47th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →25 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 38% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 68 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 87% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,638 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (6, 24, 27, 45) with the draw of 23 January 2016 — its closest relative in 1,638 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (1 October 2026): 45 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 166 — the 68th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 44–45. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →27 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 43% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 51 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 47% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,637 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (16, 22, 33, 45) with the draw of 4 May 2026 — its closest relative in 1,637 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (28 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 134 — the 31th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →16 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 45% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 63 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 77% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,636 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (2, 20, 29, 34) with the draw of 28 February 2019 — its closest relative in 1,636 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (26 September 2026): 10 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 144 — the 42th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →49 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 39% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 66 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 84% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,635 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (3, 9, 30, 45) with the draw of 15 February 2020 — its closest relative in 1,635 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (24 September 2026): 9, 45 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 133 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →30 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 31% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 78 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 98% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,634 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (6, 9, 21, 32) with the draw of 23 December 2023 — its closest relative in 1,634 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (21 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 151 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →6 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 50% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 72 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 93% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,633 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (1, 4, 20, 36) with the draw of 13 October 2025 — its closest relative in 1,633 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (19 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 132 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 36–37. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →1 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 51% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 32 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 10% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,632 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 6 numbers (40, 44, 46) with the draw of 11 August 2025 — its closest relative in 1,632 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (17 September 2026): 46 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 192 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 44–45, 45–46. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →10 had not appeared for 37 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 56% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 36% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,631 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (19, 24, 43, 46) with the draw of 12 January 2023 — its closest relative in 1,631 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (14 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 177 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20, 24–25. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →25 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 46% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →