In Bucko under the 5/41 · since May 2025 rules — 484 draws, 5 from 1–41.
65times drawn · chance expected 59 +0.83σ
12draws waiting · a wait this long: 24% for any number
7.3average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
31longest completed wait · 73% chance of one at least that long
40 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 65 times in 484 draws against 59.0 expected, +0.83σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 65 times in 484 draws · average wait 7.3 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 12 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.