In Bucko under the 5/41 · since May 2025 rules — 483 draws, 5 from 1–41.
45times drawn · chance expected 59 −1.93σ
15draws waiting · a wait this long: 16% for any number
10.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2
32longest completed wait · 55% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 45 times in 483 draws against 58.9 expected, −1.93σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 45 times in 483 draws · average wait 10.6 draws · longest completed wait 32 · waiting 15 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.4 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.