Saturday, 19 August 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 11, 24, 38) with the draw of 6 February 2019 — its closest relative in 1,395 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 August 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 121 — the 19th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 32% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.