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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Powerball · draw

Wednesday, 4 July 2018

ResultPowerball

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 7
  3. 15
  4. 41
  5. 44
  6. 10

Jackpot$70,000,000

The crowdHeld 25% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/69 + 1/26 · since Oct 2015draw 287 of 1,430 under them

← 2018-06-30All recent draws2018-07-07 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 7 15 41 44 + 1029 Aug 2026, 09:34 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 July 2018 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

59oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 67% of every possible ticket.

  • sum7th
  • odd65th
  • low65th
  • widest gap64th
  • neighbours37th
  • spread28th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 21 of each

414times
717times
1515times
4124times
44

Prize breakdown · 2018-07-04

  • Lines in play≈ 8.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out$2.3Mto 354k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 24lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.03

Where the money went

  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball30%$700.0K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball17%$399.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38%$880.4K
  • 4 other tiers14%$330.3K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10M100MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.03 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

21times
Stars · a separate 1-of-26 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each

1012times

Every number was expected about that many times after 286 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 15, 41) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 September 2016 — its closest relative in 286 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 41% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 June 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

111

The numbers add up to 111 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 175. No two numbers side by side. 27% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

44 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 29% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
$70,000,000
  • Match 50≈ 0.72 by chance$1,000,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball14≈ 9.2 by chance$50,000
  • Match 4286≈ 231 by chance$100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball734≈ 582 by chance$100
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball14,440≈ 12k by chance$7.00
  • Match 318,173≈ 15k by chance$7.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball99,951≈ 92k by chance$4.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball220,089≈ 220k by chance$4.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 734 winners, 26% more than the 582 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball220,089$4.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball99,951$4.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball14,440$7.00
    Match 318,173$7.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball734$100
    Match 4286$100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball14$50,000
    Match 50$1,000,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0$70,000,000